For those of us interested in investing in the future of food (local, organic and regeneratively grown), who is really the target buyer? This is a question that deserves some unpacking.
It can be easy to overestimate - 86% of Canadians report seeking local food at least sometimes.
It’s also easy to underestimate - by relying too heavily on data reflecting consumers have changed their food purchasing habits in the past year due to increasing prices. Among the top reasons for rarely or never buying organic, 82% of people say it’s too expensive.
And there is definitely a risk of looking too hard at new survey data from Kiss The Ground that tells us 13% of US adults reveal working understanding of regenerative agriculture. The study explains that this understanding is clearly that ‘regenerative food’ “is a result of holistic farming practices that aim to restore soil health, enhance biodiversity, with benefits for climate and wellness”. While it’s exciting this stat is up significantly from 4% in 2023, we have to admit this is still a small number.
We should be impatient for this understanding to grow given the overwhelming evidence that practices that promote soil health are associated with measurably higher concentrations of vitamins, minerals, and protective phytonutrients in the food they produce.
For dairy, a meta-analysis of over 170 studies found that organic milk contains 56% more total omega-3 fatty acids than conventional milk. For fruits and vegetables, organic produce contains 19–69% higher concentrations of polyphenolic compounds.
These compounds are associated with many health benefits - from antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, cardiovascular, metabolic, to gut-health benefits. Not to mention the more complex flavour that gives local, organic and regenerative foods delicious vibrancy. There is no doubt we are talking about higher quality food.
But for now, we know the target buyer is not ‘all consumers’. So, there is a lot to be gained by looking beyond mass market survey data to include consideration of more strategic marketing frameworks.
How big is the opportunity?
Before we get too deeply into the target buyer, what do we know about the size of the market?
According to Stats Canada detailed household consumption expenditures 2025, Canada has a ~$176B food economy 1. More than $10B of consumers' food spending is already organic and at least $5.3B is already flowing through defined local-food channels. Statistics Canada collected data from 14,708 farms selling through local market channels (primarily local independent or chain retailers and direct-to-consumer) to come up with this $5B figure in 2023. Local was defined as food sold within the province where it was produced, or, for interprovincial sales, within 50 km of where it was grown or raised.
We’re not creating demand from scratch
These aren’t independent market segments - an organic apple can also be a local one. But what's exciting is that 80% of organic products purchased in Canada are imported 2. It means the opportunity isn't: "Can we persuade Canadians to buy organic?" They're already doing it. The opportunity becomes: "Can local Canadian producers, processors and distribution systems capture more of the existing $10.66B demand?"
And then there is the other overlapping segment: regenerative. Regenerative agriculture is emerging as both a farming philosophy and rapidly growing production system. Categories of food leading research and practice for the transition to regenerative and / or organic practices are inclusive of many different types of food from oats, potatoes, vegetables, berries and apples to beef and dairy. 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
While not a defined category of Stats Canada food expenditures, we can look to the underlying supply side which includes the growing market for regenerative agriculture solutions and services —technology, soil health, agronomy, measurement, verification, inputs and transition support. An estimate from Grand View Research puts it at US$1.444B in 2025 and projects to US$5.888B by 2033, a 19.6% CAGR — and this is corroborated by Canadian government and industry sources.10,11
The investment opportunity is not to add these markets together, but to capture the economic value created as an increasing share of Canada's conventional food economy transitions toward local, organic and regenerative production.
But who is the target market for this opportunity? How many of them are there? Who, when their needs are met, will drive demand? How can we create a clear picture of them, including the messy human emotions and contradictions driving our food choices? We are not always the answer we give on a survey with good intentions. The say-do gap is real.
Who is most likely to drive the transition?
So, let’s think about who is most likely to consistently choose local, organic and regenerative food and fuel this transition based on their underlying motivations and needs.
A strategic framework can be very useful here. A market segmentation such as OneEarth Living’s 7 Motivations for Sustainable Living helps understand the different motivations (drive or underlying choices) across many facets of life - including food but also consumer goods, energy use, transportation, travel and civic engagement. This segmentation, originally based on Sitra’s Smart Consumption segmentation for Finland, generates seven segments for Canada based on consistency in attitudes and actions for many different life choices. This wide lens makes the segments more reliable (than if it was just done based on food choices for example). This segmentation is also unique because it’s not based on demographics. What lands people in a segment is a common reason for making choices - making these segments much more receptive to marketing that meets their unique needs (than groups based on age, geography or education or household income).
The segmentation reveals segments that can map to a classic adoption curve for local, organic and regenerative food.
The two front runners
Healthy Life and Planet are the expected ~10-15% who are likely leading the country in purchasing local, organic and regenerative…and have been for a while. They are the system’s thinkers and understand that ‘what we do to the environment we do to ourselves’. They want to help protect children and future generations from the impacts of climate change. So their motivation is an intertwined one - simultaneously prioritizing their health and the health of the planet by avoiding pesticides or because they want food grown in healthy soil with higher nutrient density.
Waste Not Want Not is the other front runner segment representing 15-20% of the population. This group leads by prioritizing choices that waste as little as possible: buying, storing and preparing food in ways that limit waste and making big efforts to avoid excess packaging. This motivation is more likely to be driven by frugality and honing skills (think buying in bulk, freezing, canning, preserving) and that makes local, organic and regenerative food a better solution than packaged and prepared foods in many ways that have little to do with sustainability.
The unexpected opportunity
Behind these two segments on the curve, is a very different motivation.
Eco-Trends represents a larger percentage of Canadians who are motivated to reduce their environmental impact and make a difference through what they buy ( ~15-20% of the population based on various OneEarth Living studies). Their focus is on what is current and popular.
They represent a challenge and a great opportunity.
The challenge is that they are very unlikely to be among the people in Kiss the Ground’s survey. The understanding that ‘regenerative food’ is a result of ‘holistic farming practices that aim to restore soil health, enhance biodiversity, with benefits for climate and wellness’ probably has not engaged them.
They likely need more simple, enjoyable and engaging invitations from brands and through social media to fully get behind local, organic and regenerative food choices.
Taste is the way in
A tangible example of the opportunity to engage the key Eco-Trends motivated segment is through taste based experiences and cooking classes.
Recent data collected by the CCFE validated the correlation between confidence in cooking and shopping at alternative and organic grocery channels (where local, organic and regenerative food can be more readily accessed).
By marketing to Eco-Trends through creative food events and cooking experiences where they realize the superior quality of the food and are armed with methods to make it easier to prepare, we can likely engage them in greater numbers, potentially creating more reasons to shift where they shop (to local retailers and direct from farmers).
The key thing about Eco-Trends motivated people is…once they simultaneously learn how to make a difference and enjoy something, they are highly motivated to share it. In this way they act like megaphones spreading the word to their wider networks. This makes them a highly influential group with outsized potential impact on the rest of the Canadian population.
Based on multiple applications of OneEarth’s Sustainable Living segmentation across the country, these three segments - Healthy Life and Planet, Waste Not Want Not and Eco-Trends are estimated to represent upwards of 55% of the Canadian population. That’s 23 million people. The majority that we need for Canada's conventional food economy to transition toward local, organic and regenerative production.
Just a 20% share of the conventional $176B food economy is worth $35.2B.
How do you like them apples?
In our next of this three part series, we will dive deeper, moving from sizing to ‘Influencing the Market’. By drawing on behavioural science and tapping into existing motivations, in particular, identifying communities with significantly higher % of the influential Eco-Trends segment to drive demand for local, organic regenerative food.
